Description: This research paper investigates health care costs in the last year of life. This paper looks specifically at the issues of measurement of retiree health care costs when the baseline healthcare costs are measured in terms of the last year of life costs and maintenance costs.

Description: Mortgage insurance is used to guarantee the mortgage investor [mortgagee] against financial loss due to the inability of the home buyer [mortgagor] to repay the loan in accordance with the terms of the mortgage. This paper describes a procedure used to construct predicted survivorship tables for single-family home mortgage insurance contracts written under four sections of the National Housing Act.

Description: This paper develops a method for estimating the future claim costs of known ongoing large medical claims. It applies Least Squares analysis of historical experience to derive two arrays of factors. One array is to be applied as a vector inner product with claim costs already incurred and/or paid to project a total future claim cost. The second array distributes the total future claim cost over the months following the analysis date.

Description: This actuarial memorandum represents the first, formal actuarial opinion regarding the reasonableness of the premium estimates the Clinton Administration presented with its proposed Health Security Act. The memorandum presents the assumptions and methods used to develop an average 1994 premium estimate for the standard benefit package.

Description: An analysis of how to compute the variance of the present value of future annuity payments as a component of assessing the mortality component of the provision for adverse deviation in the computation of GAAP reserves.

Description: This paper eschews using general reasoning to arrive at formulas rather than using mathematical proofs. As a demonstration, the authors explore the mathematical basis supporting increasing insurances under the assumption of a uniform distribution of deaths under each year of age. Actuarial Research Clearing House 1979 VOL. 2

Description: The purpose of this paper is to survey some new results concerning the term structure of interest rates and discuss actuarial applications. The term structure of interest rates exhibits the relationship among the yields on default free debt instruments of different maturities. Although there is a considerable volume of literature dealing with the determinants of the term structure the analysis has until recently been presented for the most part in a deterministic i.e. non- stochastic framework. This constrasts with the treatment of capital assets where equilibrium prices have been obtained under the assumption that returns on these assets are random variables.

Description: This paper suggests that many problems in health insurance pricing can be solved by requiring a minimum mandatory paid-up period [i.e., premium period shorter than insurance period], and by encouraging insureds to persist by providing them adequate pricing information. This will generate significant investment income for insuring programs and reduce the cost of insurance.

Description: Annual reports of the U.S. Social Security Trustees present 75-year financial projections of the system under three different deterministic sets of economic and demographic assumptions or scenarios. The extent of the divergence between these scenarios provides useful information concerning the range of possible outcomes, but, in the absence of stochastic model projections, no probability measure can be assigned to the three scenarios, apart from being described as intermediate, low-cost and high-cost. Demographic research and stochastic model forecasts of U.S. population suggest plausible hypotheses for analysis of the divergence characteristics of the actuarial solvency ratios implied by the three deterministic scenarios. Available data from the 2002 Trustees’ report are presented and various statistical measures are developed to aid in the assessment of plausible associated probability measures for the scenario projections.

Description: In a product warranty, the renewal function is the expected number of failures in a specific warranty duration. To estimate the renewal function, cross-sectional regression data is assumed to be available and the data is assumed to be semiparametric. In this article, the observations are a11owed to be residuals from a complex regression model. It is observed that estimation can be accomplished using reasonable models for the contracts and data collection. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1992, VOL. 2.